As the Premier League enters a crucial phase, with ten Matchweeks scheduled until late November, the implications for the league standings are significant. This analysis focuses on the teams facing the most favorable and challenging upcoming fixtures.
Which teams face the toughest schedule?
AFC Bournemouth is projected to have the toughest run of matches, followed closely by Arsenal, Brighton & Hove Albion, and Newcastle United, based on the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR).
The FDR, a metric utilized in Fantasy Premier League, assigns difficulty levels to matches on a scale from one (easy) to five (hard). Bournemouth's next ten fixtures average an FDR score of 3.2, as they are set to compete against Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Manchester City. In contrast, Brighton, Arsenal, and Newcastle—currently ranked third, fourth, and fifth—have an average rating of 3.1 for their upcoming matches.
Brighton will host Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest in their next two games but will then face a series of challenging opponents, including Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Newcastle, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Liverpool, and Manchester City. Arsenal has tough away matches against Spurs and Man City on the horizon, followed by fixtures against Liverpool, Newcastle, and Chelsea in Matchweeks 9 to 11. This period could be problematic for Arsenal, particularly with injury concerns for Martin Odegaard and Riccardo Calafiori, along with Declan Rice's suspension and Mikel Merino’s shoulder injury.
Are Man City and Liverpool in a favorable position?
Manchester City and Liverpool, the current top teams, enjoy a slightly easier schedule with an average FDR score of 2.9. Although City has upcoming matches against Arsenal and Newcastle, they will subsequently face Fulham, Wolves, Southampton, Bournemouth, and Brighton. Liverpool's next three fixtures include Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, and Wolves, but they will also confront Chelsea and Arsenal in Matchweeks 8-9, culminating in a significant match against City in late November.
FDR scores for each team (from worst to best)
Everton and Ipswich Town are positioned to benefit from the easiest fixtures, with both teams rated at an FDR score of 2.4. Everton will play all three promoted teams in their next matches, with their most challenging game likely to be against Aston Villa. Ipswich's most difficult fixture appears to be at Spurs, but their immediate match against Brighton could prove tougher than anticipated due to Brighton's strong start under new management.
Manchester United's upcoming fixtures appear favorable, as indicated by their FDR score of 2.5. Currently in 14th place with three points from their opening three games, United has a series of matches against Southampton, Crystal Palace, Brentford, West Ham United, Leicester City, Ipswich, and Everton, providing manager Erik ten Hag with a chance to improve their standings.
Current Premier League standings
European commitments complicate matters
Seven clubs participating in European tournaments this season will face the challenge of balancing their UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or Conference League obligations with Premier League matches. Over the next ten Matchweeks, teams in the Champions League and Europa League will contend with five European match rounds, while Chelsea has four rounds in the Conference League. For instance, Arsenal has a Champions League match against Atalanta scheduled between their next two Premier League matches against Spurs and Man City, with another fixture against Inter Milan occurring between visits to Newcastle and Chelsea in November.