Alex Keble looks at where Manchester United can improve in 2024/25 after Erik ten Hag signed a new deal as manager.
In the announcement that Ten Hag had extended his contract at Old Trafford by a year to 2026, the manager admitted: "We must also be clear that there is still lots of hard work ahead to reach the levels expected of Manchester United, which means challenging for English and European titles." United's new sporting director Dan Ashworth added: "While the club’s review of last season highlighted areas for improvement, it also reached a clear conclusion that Erik was the best partner for us to work with in driving up standards and outcomes."
Under the Dutchman United suffered their lowest league finish in 34 years, ending up in eighth. United finished the season with a goal difference of -1, set a record for goals conceded by an English team in a UEFA Champions League group stage, and conceded more shots than the 2007/08 Derby County team who won a record-low 11 points in a Premier League season. But this was all offset by a superb 2-1 victory over Manchester City in the FA Cup final that means Ten Hag has won silverware in each of his two years in charge at Old Trafford, having also lifted the EFL Cup in 2022/23. The last United manager to do that was Sir Alex Ferguson.
Ten Hag's detractors argue that United's tactical set-up hasn’t so much been flawed as incomprehensible. Those who defend him point to an unprecedented injury crisis and a chaotic two years in the boardroom that promises to finally settle down now that INEOS have taken charge of football operations.
We are about to find out which was the fairer analysis. Year three of Ten Hag's reign will be decisive, of that there is no doubt. He needs a good summer in the transfer window - and he needs to hit the ground running.
Here’s where Man Utd struggled in 2023/24 and what Ten Hag needs to do to turn things around.
Midfield: Huge gaps can be fixed with new signings
The most obvious tactical flaw in the Man Utd set-up last season (we’ll get to the opposition shot count later) was their wide-open central midfield. This is predominantly a tactical issue that is linked to the defence: Man Utd’s centre-backs would regularly drop deep as the front line pressed high, pulling the team shape in different directions to open up a chasm of space in the middle of the park.
Here is a screenshot from the 2-1 defeat at home to Fulham in February, a typical example of how Man Utd were unable to compress space between the lines. This consistently led to a porous shape, allowing opponents to run at them and through them at will. Man Utd allowed the third-most progressive carries in the division (862), the fourth-most carries into the final third (593), and endured the second-most attempted take-ons (805).
The best way to solve this issue is to upgrade in central midfield. Casemiro’s downturn in form is well-documented. In 2022/23 he averaged 8.69 recoveries per 90 minutes, but this dropped to 6.05 per 90 in 2023/24, while his tackling and intercepting numbers also fell slightly. United, then, could do with a more agile and athletic midfielder to help screen alongside Kobbie Mainoo.
Ten Hag’s desire to sign Frenkie de Jong back in 2022 tells us he knew what kind of player Man Utd needed: a midfielder capable of controlling the tempo in possession, as well as cut off opposition counters. All clubs of Man Utd’s stature need someone in the Rodri role, screening against the opponent’s transitions while also calmly distributing from the base to help the team remain compact as they build through the thirds.
Defence: Better luck with injuries should allow them to push up
New midfielders alone wouldn’t plug the gaps, mind. Ten Hag also needs to ensure his centre-backs bravely push up behind, confident they can win the race should the ball be put in behind them. Here, what’s needed most of all is an injury-free season for Lisandro Martinez, who stepped out brilliantly in the FA Cup final to give his team an aggression and assertive ball-winning energy they have lacked all season.
Looking at Martinez’s numbers from 2022/23, note how much more active he was in tackles, interceptions and recoveries compared with Man Utd’s other defenders from 2023/24.
It’s a lack of aggression – closing the gaps to their own midfield, but also engaging the opponent in their own third – that has led to those remarkable defensive statistics.
Out of 96 teams in the "Big Five" leagues in Europe, they finished 95th for shots faced (660), behind only Sheffield United. Their Expected Goals Against (xGA) was 70.1, which in the Premier League was the fifth-worst, behind West Ham United and the bottom three. United also allowed 1,199 touches in their own penalty area, the fourth-most in the division, and allowed the third-most attempted crosses, with 780.
It’s a huge problem, then, but one Martinez – and an updated approach – might fix.
On the other hand, the departure of Raphael Varane suggests United also need another top-quality centre-back, preferably one with the recovery pace to deal with a higher defensive line. Recent reports have linked United with Everton's Jarrad Branthwaite and Bayern Munich's Matthijs De Ligt, two high-class centre-backs who can work alongside Martinez.
Attack: Get Antony & Rashford in form to improve goal return
Ten Hag needs to improve on an attack that scored only 57 Premier League goals (joint ninth-highest) from an xG of 56.9. Chance creation isn’t the problem. They created the fifth-most chances (434) and with Mason Mount returning form injury that number should go up.
But they failed to overperform against their xG (Man City, by comparison, scored 9.9 goals more than "expected") and they delivered a low overall goals total of 57 despite hitting the sixth-most shots (543). Only 33.5 per cent of their shots were on target (12th-best) and only five teams had a lower shot-conversion rate than their 10.36 per cent.
United need to shoot better. A new forward to help Rasmus Hojlund wouldn’t go amiss, although with financial considerations, Ten Hag may also need to unlock the best of Antony and get Marcus Rashford back to his 2022/23 best.
Rashford had a disappointing campaign that culminated in his omission from the England squad for UEFA EURO 2024, but we only have to look at his numbers for the previous season to see what an asset he could again be for Ten Hag.
Ten Hag’s “direct” tactics require upgrades in all three lines
If United’s defence steps up, their midfield is reinforced and energised, and Rashford adds more goals, then Ten Hag might see his vision come together.
That vision, by the way, isn’t what most people think. It’s a common misconception that Ten Hag is attempting to play Ajax-style possession football at United. In fact, he has explicitly stated he wants to play fast, attacking football in keeping with the club's tradition.
There are flashes of evidence this can work: United topped the Premier League charts for "direct attacks" (101) last season and were second for offsides (91), with Alejandro Garnacho and Hojlund the willing runners for Bruno Fernandes to hit. For this to take off, however, United need a more solid (and pushed-together) base of defence and midfield, from which point they can hurtle forward quickly without becoming overly stretched.
That is what Real Madrid do under Carlo Ancelotti. His forwards are expected to improvise with fast and direct attacks that are launched from a firm, well-drilled base; the two banks of four with compression between the lines gives the forwards licence to roam free.
Broadly speaking that’s what Ten Hag is going for: a solid, low-pressing base complemented by direct attacks from out wide. There can be no denying that, aside from the odd high-profile match, so far it has not worked. If that is to change, he needs a good summer – reinforcements in defence, midfield, and attack – and considerably better luck with injuries.
Conclusion: Ten Hag's to-do list
- Tighten up midfield/sign athletic midfielder
- Push up the defence/keep Martinez fit
- Improve shooting stats
- Emulate style of Real Madrid