Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 4.
Player analysis: Jhon Duran (Aston Villa)
Villa's super sub forward, Duran, is pushing hard for a place in Unai Emery’s starting XI at home to Everton on Saturday.
The Colombian international, 20, has come off the bench twice to score winning goals at West Ham United and Leicester City, outshining Ollie Watkins across their first three matches of 2024/25.
It was previously unthinkable for the England international’s place to be under threat, especially after scoring 19 Premier League goals and recording 13 assists in 2023/24.
Hence why, Duran has struggled for starts with 35 of his 38 appearances for Villa coming as a substitute.
But with Watkins' poor form and the fast-improving Duran making an impact, could Emery’s selection policy change?
Duran's minutes per goal compared
Player Goals Mins/goal
Erling Haaland 70 80
Jhon Duran 7 96
Sergio Aguero 184 108
Thierry Henry 175 122
Deniz Undav 5 124
On a minutes per goal basis, Duran, with 96, is second only to Erling Haaland's 80 across the history of the Premier League.
Currently scoring at a faster rate than legends such as Sergio Aguero, Thierry Henry, Duran's astonishing record is beginning to make people sit up and take notice.
Six of his seven league goals have come as a sub, which explains why he has such an impressive hit rate, but in one of just three Premier League starts he scored for Villa last season.
That was a terrific left-footed finish against Manchester City away last season after a clever 1-2 on the edge of the box.
Duran exchanges passes with Morgan Rogers before bursting into the Man City area
Duran fires Villa level with a left-footed finish beyond Stefan Ortega
Duran also scored in two of his five starts in last season’s UEFA Conference League.
Hitting the target
Duran’s left foot and heading ability are weapons that rival teams need to be wary of this season.
Coupling explosive power with precision, Duran has a wonderful record whenever his efforts ask questions of the goalkeeper.
Scoring seven goals from just 10 attempts that have hit the target since the start of 2023/24, he has outscored his expected goals (xG) of 2.74 by a phenomenal margin.
Watkins has also been largely excellent since the beginning of the previous campaign, scoring 19 times.
But when you compare his shot placement map, it shows that opposition keepers deny him on a more frequent basis than Duran.
Duran is also scoring goals at around the same rate as his xG.
How Duran is outperforming Watkins
During his cameo appearances from the bench, Duran has been getting far more involved in the build-up play, knitting moves together with quality.
He has also been far more physical in individual duels.
For this shot on target, Duran backs into Wout Faes, before rolling him on the edge of the area.
And shortly before heading in Villa’s winning goal, he got away from Faes inside the box to create room for himself to latch onto the cross.
Watkins compared to Duran
Stats /90 Watkins 23/24 Watkins 24/25 Duran 24/25
Touches in Opp box 6.45 3.83 10.98
Touches 30.04 21.54 59.27
Shots inside box 2.68 1.91 5.49
Shots on target 1.31 0.96 3.29
Succ. passes 12.66 5.27 19.76
Duels won 3.58 2.39 10.98
Aerial duels won 1.4 0.48 6.59
In the past, Watkins’ brilliant movement has always given him an advantage over fellow forwards, and while that aspect of his play remains a great asset, Duran is catching up.
We saw that when he had an effort blocked against Arsenal, and the way he angled his secondary run to stay onside before scoring at West Ham also showcased how much he has learned from Emery’s coaching.
What happens now?
Emery has a difficult call to make this weekend. Duran is fast becoming one of English football’s hottest young prospects and his form is significantly better than Watkins, who has not looked himself.
We may see the pair play alongside one another late on in matches when Villa need a goal, but with Morgan Rogers offering so much with and without the ball at the moment, I sense it will be a straight choice between Duran and Watkins for the time being.
Duran’s amazing record as a substitute perhaps counts against him, with Emery always confident he can make an impression late on.
But it is becoming harder and harder to leave him on the bench.